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[LLDPE weekly review] crude oil consolidation is the main warehouse receipt spot deviation

I. Market Review (January 21 - January 25)

LLDPE warehouse receipts as a whole this week fell slightly, and the market is weak and weak, with light transactions. As of Friday, the China Plastics warehouse receipt index closed at 1281.96 points, down 7.06 points from last week

on Monday, the price fell in the early stage and then rose to the close, closing smoothly; On Tuesday, shortly after the opening, the price fell and then rebounded, and the mid and late market was stable; On Wednesday, the price of the previous session fluctuated greatly, rebounded immediately after the decline, and rose in shock to close at the positive line; On Thursday, the warehouse receipt opened low, and the rebound was weak until the close after the previous price fell; On Friday, the opening price rose sharply and then fell to the close

in terms of data, as of Friday's close, the LLDPE warehouse receipt index was 1439.17, down 5.62 points from last Friday. The settlement price of main warehouse receipts fell compared with the same period last week. The trading volume increased by 776 tons compared with last week, and the order volume this week was 6866 tons, up 256 tons compared with last week's data. The specific data are as follows:

warehouse receipt variety

settlement price (yuan/ton)

ll warehouse receipt transaction this Sunday (ton)

ll warehouse receipt order quantity (batch)

this weekend

last weekend

protection of concrete pressure testing machine

rise and fall range

this week

last week

increase and decrease range

this weekend

last weekend

increase and decrease range



↓ 54



↑ 776



↑ 6




↓ 43

II Comprehensive analysis:

this week, LLDPE warehouse receipts closed at the negative line on the K-line chart of the weekly index, the center of gravity entity shortened, and all averages slowly rose. On the daily K-line chart, LLDPE warehouse receipts index closed at four positive and one negative, the center of gravity entity moved down at the beginning of the week, and slightly consolidated in the next few trading days, the opening of the brin line slowly narrowed, the KDJ index fell, and the red column of MACD index turned green column expanded

in terms of international crude oil, the crude oil futures price in New York market finally fell to a three-month low on the 23rd due to the market's expectation of the rise in U.S. oil inventories and doubts about whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut can really prevent the U.S. economy from recession. According to the forecast results released by Dow Jones newswires, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was estimated to increase by 1.8 million barrels last week, and gasoline and heating oil inventories are also expected to rise to varying degrees. The increase in oil supply undoubtedly increased the downward pressure on oil prices when the market generally expected that the slowdown in the growth of the U.S. economy a. Kerry Carter formula would lead to a decline in global crude oil demand. At the close of trading on Friday, WTI crude oil was at $90.71/barrel, up $0.14 from last Friday; Brent crude oil was $90.90/barrel, up $1.67 from last Friday. Spot: the official launch of the Spring Festival transportation has stimulated the market hype atmosphere. The linear quotation in the domestic market has increased steadily, and prices in some regions have increased significantly. In addition, the state released the information of heavy snow in most areas around the 20th, and the heavy snow had a significant impact on transportation. The temperature in the north is low, and the snow melting speed is expected to be slow. The current transportation difficulties will continue, but the influence is still less than that of the Spring Festival transportation

to sum up, LLDPE warehouse receipts fell slightly this week, mainly consolidation. Considering from two aspects of crude oil and spot goods, on the one hand, upstream manufacturers have tight supply and downstream market transactions are light; Crude oil prices fell slightly due to the impact of the U.S. economy. Judging from the situation of this week, the deviation between the warehouse receipt index and the spot indicates that the price is falsely high. It is expected that the line price will hardly have a significant improvement before the year, and the market will mostly fluctuate slightly, with both ups and downs

(personal view, for reference only; enter the market accordingly, at your own risk)

source of information: China plastics trading

note: the source of this reprint is indicated. High molecular polymers have the mechanical properties with the widest range of variability among all known materials. Reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

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