The hottest LLDPE Market Research volume position

2022-09-23
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LLDPE Market Research: volume position contraction and shock remain

LLDPE monthly report in April 2008

I. Market Review

in the one month period from March 26 to April 25, 2008, even the plastic futures market showed a trend of first restraining and then rising. Looking back on this wave of market for even plastics, the main reasons are: first, since the end of March to mid April, with the peak season of LLDPE downstream spring film demand gradually weakening, speculative funds gradually withdrew from the futures market, The market sentiment was seriously lost and the transaction was depressed, which dragged down the futures price of Lianhua plastic futures market, during which the current price showed an upside down situation. Secondly, after more than a week of sideways consolidation, with the frequency of the upstream crude oil market hitting a record high, Lianhua plastic was slightly encouraged. Moreover, a round of replenishment actions launched by downstream agricultural film production enterprises also supported Lianhua plastic futures market, Promote the plastic industry to show an obvious upward trend. L0800, the main contract of plastics this month, opened at 13790 points in September, with the highest rise of 14350 points and the lowest at 13440 points. It closed at 14085 points, up 375 points from the previous month, with 3208 positions, 2286 positions and 28606 transactions

from March 26 to April 25, 2008, the main contract l0805 of plastics was traded. Unit: yuan/ton. The leading role was further strengthened; Create about 10 10 billion level industrial clusters with national influence, with each hand of 5 tons

Contract

opening price

highest price

lowest price

closing

rise and fall

position (hand)

position increase (hand)

transaction (hand)

l0809

13790

14350

13440

14085

375

3208

2286

28606

march 25 even plastic l0809 main contract day K line chart

even plastic l0809 main contract day K line chart. (source: cuhk futures)

II. The main factors affecting the trend of LLDPE futures

(I) upstream raw materials

(1) crude oil

during the period from March 26 to April 25, the international crude oil market continued to rise, and the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil continued to set new intraday and closing records. On April 22, WTI hit a record high of $119.90 per barrel in this period in May. As of April 25, WTI closed at $118.52 per barrel in June. Looking at the formation of this round of super bull market, this is mainly due to: affected by the credit crisis, the U.S. economic growth slowed down and showed signs of falling into recession, the dollar continued to decline, a large number of funds entered the market, and the fund's net long position in WTI crude oil rose for three consecutive weeks; The riots and production cuts in Nigeria, the strike of British refinery workers, the closure of Mexico's major crude oil export ports, and OPEC's refusal to increase production all exacerbated market concerns about supply; At the same time, the International Energy Agency said that this year, the global oil demand increased by about 1.3 million barrels per day to 87.2 million barrels per day, especially the rapid development of emerging market countries such as China and India, which still maintain a strong demand for crude oil. The composite polyurethane adhesive used to support plastic flexible packaging has become a complete range of crude oil prices. In addition, the General Administration of Customs of China released data on April 22, China's crude oil import volume in March hit a record level of 4.09 million barrels per day, and the crude oil import volume in the first quarter also reached the highest point in the same period. Before the arrival of the summer demand peak in the United States, gasoline inventories fell for six consecutive weeks, and the continuous rise of gasoline and distillate oil also pushed crude oil prices soaring

comparison chart of closing conditions of US crude oil, London crude oil and lianplastic from March 26 to April 25

comparison chart of closing conditions of US crude oil, London crude oil and lianplastic. (source: cuhk futures)

(2) ethylene

during March 25, the Asian ethylene market showed a steady rise. From the reduction in the order amount of chemical machinery to the reduction in external demand, CFR per ton in Northeast Asia rose from $1195 per ton on March 26 to $1405 per ton in Northeast Asia on April 25, with a price increase of $210 per ton, and the price of CFR Southeast Asia ethylene also rose from $1105 per ton to $1335 per ton, The rise of $230/ton in the Asian ethylene market during this period is mainly due to the soaring price of crude oil and the rising price of naphtha. It is reported that the supply of ethylene in Asia is still tight, but due to the rapid rise of upstream prices, it is difficult for downstream end customers to transfer costs in a short time. In addition, due to the large number of overhaul devices, it is still difficult to search for spot ethylene shipments based on FOB South Korea. Iran's cargo cannot reach the Northeast Asian market in a short time. In terms of units, Yangzi Petrochemical's 400000 T/a cracking unit was closed for 15 days in mid April. In South Korea, yncc's 857000 T/a No. 1 steam cracking unit will maintain an operating rate of 95% in May and June

ethylene price trend chart in Asia from March 26 to April 25

ethylene price trend chart in Asia. (the source proposes to strive to 2020: cuhk futures)

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