Analysis of the reasons for the most active chemic

2022-08-26
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Analysis of the reasons for the active futures market of China's chemical products

China's chemical products futures market has developed rapidly in recent years, with the total unilateral trading volume remaining at 25 per cent per year. When the number of reciprocations reaches the preset value, more than 100 million hands, in sharp contrast to the downturn of foreign chemical products futures. From the perspective of the scale of China's petrochemical industry, the stage of industrial development and the cultivation of futures market, this paper compares the situation abroad, analyzes the active reasons of the chemical futures market, and prospects and puts forward suggestions for the future development

because every time it is a new time, the development of domestic chemical futures

China's chemical futures market has been running successfully for six and a half years. From the perspective of variety system construction, four chemical products, PTA, LLDPE, PVC and methanol, have been listed successively, covering the fields of petrochemical and coal chemical industry in an all-round way; From the perspective of market liquidity, the trading volume of chemical futures has remained stable after rapid growth. In recent years, the annual trading volume (unilateral) has been higher than 200million. In the same period, the variety system of foreign chemical futures market was relatively single, and the trading volume was extremely low, which appeared to be relatively depressed

factors affecting the activity of chemical futures

the huge scale of the petrochemical industry has laid the foundation for the active chemical futures market in China. The characteristics of the industrial development stage determine that customers have strong demand for it, and favorable conditions such as policies and competitive atmosphere provide a strong guarantee for its cultivation

industrial scale lays the element foundation

China's petrochemical industry has a huge scale and rapid development, which has laid a solid material resource element foundation for the activity of the chemical futures market

in recent years, the output value and profits of China's petrochemical industry have increased significantly, playing an important role in the national economy. In 2012, the total output value of domestic petrochemical industry reached 12.24 trillion yuan, the actual investment in fixed assets was 1.76 trillion yuan, the sales revenue was 12.03 trillion yuan, and the total import and export volume of the industry was 637.594 billion US dollars

in terms of production and sales, China's crude oil and natural gas production in 2012 was about 304 million tons (oil equivalent), an increase of 3.4% year-on-year; The total output of major chemicals was about 460 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. The apparent consumption of oil and natural gas was 622 million tons (oil equivalent), an increase of 6.5% year-on-year; The total apparent consumption of major chemicals was about 434 million tons, an increase of about 7%

among the listed chemical futures varieties, PTA, PVC and methanol have obvious comparative advantages in material resources. The production capacity of PTA and PVC in China is much higher than that in Europe, America and India, and the production capacity of methanol is close to half of the world's total production capacity. At the same time, as a net importer of the above three chemical products, China has a more obvious scale advantage in its consumption. In terms of polyethylene, although China's output advantage is not obvious, its consumption has surpassed that of the United States since 2008, and the gap has gradually widened. Therefore, the four listed chemical futures varieties in China have obvious comparative advantages in material resources

industry decentralization provides the premise of marketization

compared with the developed countries in Europe and the United States, China's petrochemical industry has not completed the integration at this stage, showing the characteristics of a large number of enterprises, decentralized production and consumption, and developed spot trade, which has brought huge demand for futures hedging. In 2012, there were 27208 Enterprises above Designated Size in the domestic petrochemical industry (with a main business income of more than 20million yuan). Many enterprises are distributed in various chemical sub industries, resulting in the highly decentralized petrochemical industry. Among PTA production enterprises, private enterprises account for nearly 70% of the market share. In recent years, the polyethylene industry, which was once relatively centralized, has also tended to be decentralized with the production of coal to olefin and methanol to olefin. Polyester synthesis and plastic processing industries, which are downstream of the two, are more dispersed. The highly decentralized petrochemical industry is conducive to the formation of the market-oriented price of chemicals. While increasing the price volatility, it reduces the possibility of price manipulation and is conducive to the development of the chemical futures market

in developed countries that have completed the integration of petrochemical industry by increasing investment in R & D and technical support for customers in Asia, there are only hundreds of large-scale chemical enterprises, and each fine molecule industry is often monopolized by several large-scale enterprises. Under this industrial pattern, major enterprises have a greater impact on the formation of chemical prices, have a higher ability to control price risks, and have less demand for the futures market

the trade mode gives birth to the demand for risk aversion

in addition to the large number of chemical enterprises, China's chemical spot trade is also very developed. Take polyethylene as an example, there are a large number of small-scale plastic processing enterprises in the market. As a polyethylene producer, it is difficult for large petrochemical enterprises to trade directly with them one by one. This upstream and downstream asymmetric production and consumption pattern has brought living space for many intermediate traders: there are more than 2000 traders in Zhejiang and Shanghai, the East China polyethylene trade distribution center; In Zibo, Shandong Province, where petrochemical manufacturers are located, there are about fourorfive traders. A batch of polyethylene resins has successfully won orders from hundreds of customers. From leaving the factory or entering the customs to entering the downstream processing enterprises, it may be changed three to four times. As one of the main forces participating in the LLDPE futures market, the group of traders has effectively promoted the development of the market. In contrast, European and American countries have more polyethylene product integration and direct selling models, fewer traders, lack of hedging needs of their spot enterprises, and lack of participants in the futures market

competition and policy help market cultivation

the success of China's chemical futures market cannot be separated from the synergy of competition effect and policy effect. China's financial and futures policies have set a strict threshold for the outside world, limited capital outflows, effectively curbed the competitive pressure from mature markets in Europe and the United States, and won valuable cultivation time for the domestic futures market; A strict and prudent variety listing approval and supervision system has been established internally. Under the guidance of a series of policies, commodity futures exchanges have formed a standardized and orderly benign competition mechanism. Each exchange is extremely cautious in variety selection and contract design, and has carried out a lot of market research work. Therefore, the listed chemical futures are often able to meet the needs of the spot industry and win the favor of the market

prospects for the development of China's chemical industry market

based on the investigation of the development status of the domestic chemical industry, it can be inferred that China's chemical futures market can continue to maintain a prosperous situation for a considerable period of time

the advantages of factors will be more consolidated

China's petrochemical industry has great development potential in the future. According to the prediction of China economic information, by 2015, the total industrial output value and industrial sales output value of the petrochemical industry will both reach about 19 trillion yuan. According to the "12th Five Year Plan Development Guide for petroleum and chemical industry" of the petrochemical Federation, the average annual growth rate of China's consumption of crude oil, ethylene and synthetic resin will reach 5.5%, 11% and 7% respectively by 2015. Therefore, the industrial scale foundation of China's chemical futures market will be more consolidated

demand advantage will still exist

the market-oriented reform of China's petrochemical industry is under way, such as the market-oriented pricing mechanism of coal, fertilizer, refined oil and other products is gradually developing and improving, which will increase the demand for risk management in the futures market in the future. At the same time, the diversification trend of raw materials represented by the new coal chemical industry in recent years will have a great impact on the ethylene and other industries with relatively high monopoly, so as to further increase their dispersion and make the risk hedging demand of relevant enterprises stronger

competition and policy advantages will develop by leaps and bounds

while the domestic futures market is maturing, the door of internationalization of the exchange is gradually opening. The advanced experience and competition from abroad will drive the steady innovation and continuous improvement of the domestic futures market

suggestions on the development of domestic chemical futures market

in view of the changes in the industrial background faced by domestic chemical products in the future, the author puts forward the following suggestions:

keep up with the diversification of chemical raw materials

the diversification of raw materials represented by shale gas and coal chemical industry is deeply affecting China's chemical market. Take polyethylene as an example. In recent years, the market share of domestic naphtha products has gradually declined, and the price is constantly under pressure. Its price formation mechanism may change significantly in the future. The futures market should prepare early, study the cost and benefit advantages of different production process routes, and adjust the contract design in time according to market changes

actively comply with the trend of industrial integration

the integration of the petrochemical industry is the general trend. In order to avoid the sluggish trading situation similar to the European and American Chemical futures market after the industrial integration, the domestic futures market should seize the historical opportunity, attract the participation of leading enterprises in the chemical industry with scientific and reasonable rule design and high-quality services, and provide them with effective risk management and price discovery tools through the development of the OTC market, Make the futures market an indispensable part of the chemical trade system and price formation, so as to provide guarantee for its long-term activity

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