Analysis of the reasons for the depression of the

2022-08-13
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analysis of the reasons for the depression of the new energy bus market in the first half of the year

according to the relevant reports, the new energy bus market has warmed up in 2017, so the author predicts that the annual market target can be achieved. The analysis is as follows:

I. Analysis of the reasons for the depression of the market in the first half of the year

since the beginning of the year, the domestic market has been in a depressed state, mainly due to the well-known adjustment of the new energy policy, which led to the cancellation of all the recommended directory resources last year. The period of re declaration announcement of a model is generally more than 3 months. At present, there are three preconditions for new energy vehicles to meet the acceptance of users: one is the registration announcement, the second is the recommended catalogue, and the third is the tax exemption announcement. Before the registration announcement and declaration, we also need to obtain the third-party authoritative test report on parts and complete vehicles. The workload is relatively large and the requirements are relatively high

at the beginning of the year, it was required to re declare the announcement, and the direct result was that in 2017, in order to meet the growing market demand, the new energy bus market sold only 14320 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of -57.0%. There is no way to compare the first half of 2017 with 2016. The structure list of 2017 is as follows:

the sales volume of new energy buses in February and June shows that the market has warmed up

a total of 14320 new energy buses were sold in June, while a total of 7878 new energy buses were sold in June, accounting for 55% of the monthly new energy market. This increase indicates that the negative impact of the re declaration announcement on the market has ended. Since June, the new energy market has returned to normal. The conclusion of the structural analysis is that the market proportion of new energy buses has reached 81%, which shows that public transport is the main market of new energy buses in China, and that the current technical level of new energy vehicles has been able to meet the requirements of bus customers. However, the requirements of the road passenger transport market need to be studied further. The new energy bus market is almost all pure electric buses. The new subsidy policy for plug-in new energy vehicles has not been introduced yet in early 2017. Hybrid electric buses are basically diverted to the road passenger transport market. 2、 The sales volume of new energy passenger cars in June showed that the market recovered.

Third, the strength growth of the main manufacturers of new energy passenger cars was compared.

the cumulative sales volume of the top ten enterprises in the month was 12600, with a market concentration of 88%

(1) among the monthly cumulative sales, the top ten manufacturers with a cumulative market share of 79.5%

the monthly cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars ranked the top ten are: Yutong Bus 21819, Foton OUHUI 11124 (including meter light passenger cars), Zhongtong bus 7092, Jin LV bus 4264, Ankai bus 4198, Jin long passenger car 3866, Haige bus 3245, Dongfeng Special Automobile 2683, BYD 2518, Dongfeng Chaolong 2042

(2) among the single month sales in June, the top ten manufacturers with a cumulative market share of 78.7%

the top ten new energy bus sales in June are: Yutong 5210, Zhongtong 2518 (including 1500 special vehicles), Foton OUHUI 2088 (including Mi light passenger), BYD 1760, Shenlong 1074, Ankai 1046, Jin LV 867, Haige 803, Jin Long 733 and Dongfeng station wagon 554

(3) many enterprises achieved growth in a single month in June

among the top ten enterprises with sales volume, Shenlong increased 416% year-on-year, Zhongtong increased 136% year-on-year (1500 special vehicles), BYD increased 120% year-on-year, Foton OUHUI 27.9% and Ankai 27.3%

IV. the market target of new energy passenger cars in 2017 can be achieved

(1) the sales concentration of new energy passenger cars (the top 10) in January has reached 88%. From July on, if the average sales volume of the top 10 enterprises is 1000, it can reach 10000 in a single month, and 60000 in six months. Calculated by 88% of the concentration, the market sales volume of new energy passenger cars in the second half of the year can reach 68182

(2) from July, if the average sales volume of the top 10 enterprises is 1300, it can reach 13 Pingmei Guoneng in a single month. It was established on September 22 this year, 000 vehicles, and 78000 vehicles can be sold in six months. Based on the concentration of 88%, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars in the second half of the year can reach 88636

(3) the goal of 100000 new energy passenger cars in China in 2017 can be achieved. If this goal can be guaranteed to be achieved, it shows that the role of the 2017 announcement is positive

according to the current general trend, it can be basically judged that the sales volume of new energy buses in China will exceed 100000 in 2017, mainly medium and large pure electric buses

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